I'm more of a baseball fan. I watch some NFL games and even fewer college games other than when the wife wants to see her alma mater, Illinois. I go to an indoor driving range during the Super Bowl. I know the Chiefs won it all last year, but didn't see a minute of it.
Being baseball fan, particularly the Chicago Cubs, my sports prognosticating skills are minimal at best and based primarily of dreams and wishful thinking. In short, I was right once, in 2016, and that also involved a lot of handwringing and prayer on a certain November night in Cleveland.
So take what I say with a proverbial grain of salt.
The sports news in my area was all about the Bears and their Number One pick in this year's NFL draft. They picked Caleb Williams from USC.
Williams is a darn good quarterback. By most accounts, he is a good person. He can run and throw and has great stats in both those areas. He wants to win. He says he wants to play for 20 years with the same team. That's probably why the Chicago Bears drafted him with the 1st overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft.
The question of whether he will lead the Bears to the Super Bowl, however, remains to be seen.
He had a pretty good freshman year at Oklahoma, but then jumped ship to play his final two college years at USC. Neither Oklahoma nor USC were in the national college playoffs with Williams. In 2022 Williams won the Heisman Trophy and led USC to the Pac 12 championship game, but lost to Utah. In 2023 USC was only 5-4 in the conference.
Based on the results of recent picks and acquisitions Bears have made, their fans might rightly suspect the team's judgement or ability in picking quarterbacks They thought Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields were the answers, but neither brought them more than two games into the playoffs.
Maybe Williams is the answer. I honestly don't know, but I wouldn't expect too much immediately. Some previous number one picks in recent NFL drafts have helped their teams to the playoffs quickly, but not in the first year in the league, and not to the Super Bowl, yet, in their careers.
Some stats about QBs drafted Number One
No one really knows how a QB, or any player, will do over his career. The average career of an NFL player is 3.3 years. QBs are a little higher at 4.44 years. Injuries and simply not playing up to expectations are factors for any player's success in the league. And few achieve instant success at quarterback. Since 2000 only Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford, both No. 1 selections, have won the Super Bowl. Manning took four years. Stafford took 13 years and going to a different team to win a SuperBowl.
It's not an easy road no matter when a player is picked, and there are exceptions. One that comes to mind is Bart Starr of the Green Bay Packers. In 1956, the NFL had 12 teams, 30 draft rounds, and 360 players chosen. Starr wasn't picked until the 17th round, 200th pick overall. He went on to win five titles: three NFL championships and the first two Super Bowls.
Here are some other players, when they were drafted, and how they've done:
Brady excelled almost immediately as a starter his second year. And, considering he was not a high draft choice, it makes his seven career Super Bowls even more impressive. Mahomes became the starter for the Chiefs in his second year and has won three Super Bowl MVPs. Aaron Rodgers didn't start his first three season. When he took over from Brett Favre, it took him three years to win his first and as yet only Super Bowl.
The real anomaly here is Brock Purdy who was "Mr. Irrelevant" in the 2022. "Mr. Irrelevant" is the nickname given to the player who is picked dead last in the draft. Because of injuries and other factors he started for San Francisco in his first season and took them to the NFC championship game. In his next season, he took them to the Super Bowl, losing to Mahomes.
Like Starr, Brady and Purdy were not highly regarded out of college. Yet, they succeeded. Many Number One picks don't work out. Even being a first or second round pick is not guaranteed to be successful. Sometimes players just rise to the occasion and exceed expectations.
I don't know if Williams be a Mahomes or a Brady and bring the Bears to the playoffs and a Super Bowl. I don't doubt that he wants to. But so did Jim Harbaugh, Rex Grossman, Mitch Trubisky, and Justin Fields, all of whom the Bears drafted in the first round.
There's an old saying about counting chickens before they're hatched, and while Chicago Bears fans have something to be excited about, they would do well to remember not to do any counting yet.
Every year on various social media sites I post Woody Guthrie's NEW YEARS RULIN'S.which comes from the many notebooks, datebooks, and papers Guthrie wrote in.
This year I thought I'd check to see how I stacked up against it during 2023.
1. Work more and better 2. Work by a schedule
I'm retired and get just tired doing different things than when I taught high school for 35 yeaars. I do keep to a schedule. Wake up around the same time without an alarm. Have a cup of coffee (thanks Wife who brews it everyday) Post a quote of the day on social media. Go for a walk.
3. Wash teeth in any 4. Shave 5. Take bath
Personal hygiene is important. I have several empty spots in my mouth but am better at keeping the ones I still have. I have hair on my face, but not my pate. I trim one and shave the other regularly. I don't remember the last time I took an actual bath, but when we remodeled the bathroom, we did put in a tub/shower unit.
6. Eat good - fruit- vegetables - milk 7. Drink scanty if any
When I taught, I had the same thing for lunch every day: an apple, a banana, a handful of baby carrots, and a plain sandwich of four slices of Oscar Meyer cotto salami. That was every school day for me career. These days, I have a banana and cereal almost every day for breakfast. I like meat, and whatever veggies my wife adds to dinner when she feels like cooking. I don't eat as much sugar sweets as I used to. I drink brandy, but gave up beer. Occasionally I'll have a THC gummy. Mostly it's a glass of brandy before bed. I swear it keeps the COVID away. My friends and relatives think I'm just lucky. I think it's the brandy.
8. Write a song a day.
Been slacking on that. I have bits and pieces of some, starts and stutters. One or two nearly done. One of two I'm happy with and want to record with Susan. I need to write more of anything every day.
9. Wear clean clothes - look good 10. Shine shoes 11. Change socks 12. Change bed clothes often
I would ask Woody, "Who doesn't do that?" and he'd probably answer, "Hoboes and folks down on their luck." I'm still lucky. I got plenty of clothes in the closet and sometimes I wear the same shirt two or three days in a row. I have one pair of fancy dress shoes that I clean when I have to look fancy. I change socks, and underwear, every day. Not sure what he meant by bed clothes. I don't wear pajamas.
13. Read lots of good books
Could probably do more of this. So far this year I got these back up on the shelf:
During my teaching life I had a 45 minute drive to work and the same time back. I listened to CDs and tapes or the radio, depending on my mood. Radio has changed to a lot of just talk and for the best of that. I go to the local NPR station. I used to learn a lot of new artists on FM stations, but not so much anymore. Radios in cars have changed a lot. I don't have those long drives to and from work anymore. I do listen to baseball games on radio, particularly at home. It's still the best way to see a game.
15. Learn people better
We all can do that more these days in this divided country. Maybe Woody had the right idea.
16. Keep rancho clean
I'm not good at this. Every so often I find there's a table under the stuff I put on it. We have a system, My wife usually points at something when she means it's time for me to clear it away or pick it up. She cleans when she wants, and tells me when the toilets need cleaning. Works for us.
17. Don't get lonesome 18. Stay glad
I have family. I have friends. They're there for me, and I hope I am there for them. They and a lot of things make me glad. I'll stay that way I think.
19. Keep hoping machine running 20. Dream good
Sometimes that's hard to do. I keep at it, though. Still hoping and dreaming to play a music festival or two. Woody had some words about that, too.
21. Bank all extra money 22. Save dough
Wait. There's extra money? Our joke is that we're making tens of dollars in folk music. We make a little from streaming, merch sales, and gigs from being Wattle & Daub. Whatever extra we get goes to other things. I sometimes buy two loaves of bread and put one in the freezer, so I guess I do save dough.
23. Have company and don't waste time
We should have more people over. When we do, we like to play music and talk with whoever is over. We're not much for partying. Well, except what we Mocarskis do at weddings, but that's a whole different story
24. Send Mary and kids money
Guthrie was referring to his first wife and family. My first wife is gone, and I give my kids money for birthdays and Christmas. Thank goodness they are not dependent on me, cuz, you know, the whole tens of dollars in folk music thing.
25. Play and sing good
I do the best I can. Need to practice more. Sometimes I'm all right.
26. Dance better
I love the movement of dance, but I wish I could do it like my parents. I did write a song about them dancing. It appeared on our third album.
27. Help win war - beat fascism 32. Make up your mind 33. Wake up and fight
I put these out of order because they seem to fit together. Guthrie fought in WW2, but fascism is till in the world. It's a constant battle. It should be easy to make up your mind about which side you're on in the battle. I know where I stand. I hope song of my songs show that.
28. Love mama 29. Love papa 30. Love Pete
Though both my parents are gone, I still miss them. I love my kids and step kids for all their quirks and foibles. Guthrie's Pete was his unborn child. His wife and he referred to her as Railroad Pete. She died in a fire at age four. My Pete was Pete Seeger. One of my regrets is that I never got to see him perform live, but he and Woody Guthrie are a part of who I am today and hope to continue to learn from them.
31. Love everybody
I try.
Overall, I thought I had a good year. Sure, I could do more, be a better human, make more music, write more songs, get more gigs, practice more. Most of my friends and family are still around, and I see them regularly, but could probably keep in touch more. I haven't been to jail for justice yet. I see 2024 being similar.
